🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."